Allianz Trade Insolvency Study: Corporate Insolvencies Rise Significantly More Sharply as a Result of Middle East Conflict
Global corporate insolvencies are expected to increase by 6% in 2026 due to the Middle East conflict (forecast before escalation: +3%)
Stabilisation at a high level for 2027 (before escalation: slight decline)
Middle East conflict will lead to a total of almost 15,000 additional insolvencies worldwide in 2026 and 2027 (2026: +7,000 cases, 2027: +7,900)
Worst case: A prolonged conflict could lead to an even greater increase in global bankruptcies in 2026 by +10% in 2026 and another +3% in 2027
Germany: increase of 2% to 24,650 cases, higher than previously expected (+800 cases compared to 2025 or +570 insolvencies more than originally forecast for 2026); Slight decline in sight in Germany in 2027 (-2% to 24,150 cases)
Ongoing Middle East conflict could lead to a 4% increase in German bankruptcies in 2026 (to 24,994 cases, +344 additional insolvencies)
Hamburg, 22 April 2026 – The Middle East conflict is increasing global payment defaults and insolvencies. In its latest global insolvency study, the world's leading credit insurer Allianz Trade has revised its forecasts for 2026 and 2027 significantly upwards in the wake of the conflict. "For example, bankruptcies are likely to increase for the fifth time in a row in 2026 with an increase of 6% (2025: +6%) – twice as much as previously expected: Before the conflict, the forecast was still for an increase in the number of cases by 3%. In 2027, global corporate insolvencies are likely to level off at a high level (before the Middle East conflict: slight decline). However, an ongoing conflict in the Middle East could further exacerbate the risk of insolvency, both globally and in Germany.

Insolvencies rise twice as much due to Middle East conflict – highest level since 2012
"The Middle East conflict is already having a significant impact on Germany, and the US trade war is far from over," says Milo Bogaerts, CEO of Allianz Trade in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. "The consequences are not only felt at the pump and in inflation. World trade, exports and the German economy were once again slowed down. This also has consequences for insolvencies, which are likely to rise more significantly than previously expected at 2% (1% to 24,080 cases). We expect 24,650 cases (+570 cases more) - that would be the highest level in 14 years."

Nevertheless, the number of cases remains well below the negative record during the global financial crisis with more than 32,000 bankruptcies.

2027: Slight easing on the horizon – at a still high level
"But there is at least a ray of hope," says Bogaerts. "Currently, a slight decline is emerging on the horizon 2027 (-2% to 24,150 cases). Until then, despite fiscal support, it will remain bumpy and many companies are under pressure."

However, the prerequisite for this recovery is an early end to the Middle East conflict and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. If the conflict drags on longer, the effects are likely to intensify.

Worst-case scenario: Downside risks in the event of further escalation and duration of the Middle East conflict
"It all depends on the duration of the Middle East conflict now," says Bogaerts. "The downside risks are currently high. In the worst-case scenario (35% probability) in the event of a further escalation and a prolonged conflict, we assume a doubly high increase in insolvencies at 4%. With a total of 24,994 insolvencies, that would be another 344 cases more than we currently expect."

The fourth consecutive increase in insolvencies is likely to spread across all German sectors again in 2026. As early as 2025, six industries were the strongest drivers. They recorded the highest number of cases, but also double-digit increases, especially in construction (+10%), trade (+15%), professional services (+10%), hotels and restaurants (+27%), administrative and support services (+12%) and manufacturing (+24%) – including again a number of insolvencies of well-known companies.

The Middle East conflict is also driving up corporate insolvencies
worldwide The crisis in the Middle East has increased volatility and uncertainty in energy markets, transport costs and global supply chains. Beyond the immediate disruptions, the knock-on effects point to accelerating inflation, tighter financial conditions and a deterioration in the business climate.

"This situation is driving up costs along global value chains, from agri-food and manufacturing to healthcare and technology. It is also increasing pressure on energy-intensive sectors such as transport, chemicals and metals. The combination of weaker demand, rising input costs and tight financial conditions is weighing on companies with weak pricing power, low margins, high debt or structurally increased working capital requirements. Compared to our forecast before the crisis, the direct damage of the Middle East conflict will mean 7,000 additional corporate insolvencies worldwide for 2026 and 7,900 for 2027," says Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.

Downside: global insolvencies rise even more strongly in the event of prolonged geopolitical conflicts and economic shocks If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a longer period of time, the knock-on effects could be exacerbated by a prolonged disruption in global oil and gas supplies as well as further supply bottlenecks for raw materials (fertilizers, helium).
This, combined with rising inflation, declining confidence and lower growth, would further exacerbate the risk of insolvency.

"A sustained and far-reaching escalation would result in global insolvencies rising by 10% in 2026 and by 3% in 2027. This would mean around 4,100 additional insolvency cases in the US and 10,500 in Western Europe in the period 2026-2027," says Maxime Lemerle, senior analyst for insolvency research at Allianz Trade.

Jobs at risk: 94,000 more jobs at risk in 2026 than in the previous year
Given a 6% increase in global corporate insolvencies in 2026, Allianz Trade estimates that 2.2 million jobs would be directly at risk. This corresponds to an increase of 94,000 compared to 2025.

"Construction, retail and services would be the most vulnerable sectors," says Lemerle. "Europe leads the global statistics with 1.3 million potentially affected jobs, 209,000 of them in Germany. Western Europe (~960,000) and North America (~460,000) are both expected to record a 12-year high. Overall, jobs at risk from corporate bankruptcies are expected to account for 6% of the total number of unemployed in the US and Europe."

The complete global insolvency study (ENG, pdf) can be found attached and here: https://www.allianz-trade.de/content/dam/onemarketing/aztrade/allianz-trade_de/dokumente/2026-04-22-allianz-trade-insolvenzstudie.pdf



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